U.S. overseas travel market Outbound Travel - US - September 2006

Abstract
This report covers travel taken outside of the U.S. states, with at least one night of paid-for accommodation. The analysis focuses mainly on commercial accommodation for hotels, motels and bed and breakfasts.
Though many may consider the outbound travel market a mature one, only 30% of Americans hold valid passports and only 41% have traveled outside the U.S. in the past three years. This indicates that many Americans are not willing to, or do not have the means to, travel outside the U.S.
Despite this, the outbound travel market, both in terms of number of outbound travelers and in spending abroad, grew 7.6% and 21.5% respectively from 2003 to 2005. International travel spending by U.S. residents exceeded year 2000 levels in 2005 when spending reached $95 billion. Spend on international travel by U.S. residents returned to 2000 levels in 2004, having declined each year in between. The number of outbound trips is also forecast to exceed year 2000 levels in 2006 with an estimated 61 million outbound travelers. Again it was not until 2004 when 2000 levels where reached after successive years of decline in the between years.
This rebound in outbound travel comes on the heals of a slump in outbound travel from 2000-2003 with year 2003 levels of spending and person trips being the low point with only 54 million outbound trips and $78 million in spending. Growth has been driven by an improving economy and growing household income levels, in spite of a weak dollar, which makes travel to many destinations more expensive, and on-going terrorist threats.
In this report, Mintel clearly identifies the principal external factors driving or curtailing growth. Exclusive consumer research reveals the attitudes, needs and behavior of consumers, with analysis broken down both by demographic characteristics, and by segment.
Six years of specific sales data provide a factual and impartial presentation of the market as a whole. Mintel also evaluates the performance of individual sectors in the market, and provides information about the major companies and brands. Using the SPSS forecasting package, Mintel creates a five-year forecast of U.S. retail sales, revealing potential opportunities for growth and product development.
Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
Introduction
Definition
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
State of the market
Economy and demographics drive outbound market
Ties to family and friends draws Asians and Hispanics to travel
Lack of paid vacation hinders ability to travel abroad
Number of person trips and spending abroad grows
Who is traveling abroad?
Complexity of booking international airfare means many still rely on travel agents
Asians and Hispanics travel abroad the most
Most travel outside the U.S. with spouse
Income and ethnicity influence willingness to visit new destinations
Future largely dependent on economy and potential security threats
Market Drivers
GDP important macroeconomic factor
Figure 1: U.S. gross domestic product, 2000-05
Household income
Figure 2: Distribution of U.S. households, by household income, 1999 and 2004
Income by age
Figure 3: Median household income per household member, by age of householder, 2003
Figure 4: Households with discretionary income, 2000
Number of vacation days
Figure 5: Employees with access to paid vacation and paid holidays, 1999-2005
Figure 6: Average number of annual vacation days for select countries
Terrorism, avian flu and other temporary setbacks
American population by age
Figure 7: U.S. population, by age, 2000-10
Race/ethnicity significantly influences outbound travel
Figure 8: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2000-10
Exchange rates
Figure 9: Selected exchange rates against the U.S. dollar, 2000-05
Special events and media influence patterns
Market Size and Trends
Travel spending
Figure 10: Spending on fares and travel-related expenses by U.S. citizens outside the United States, 2000-05
Figure 11: Spending on fares and travel-related expenses by U.S. citizens outside the United States, at current and constant prices, 2000-05
Figure 12: Graph: Spending on fares and travel-related expenses by U.S. citizens outside the United States, at current and constant prices, 2000-05
Figure 13: U.S. international travel and tourism balance of trade, 2000-05
Figure 14: U.S. international travel and tourism balance of trade, by region, 2005
Figure 15: Average expenditures outside U.S., by U.S. citizens, 2004*
Number of U.S. residents traveling abroad
Figure 16: Number of domestic, inbound and outbound travel person trips, 1999-2006
Figure 17: Number of U.S. residents who took international leisure trip, 1999-2004
Where leisure travelers go
Figure 18: International destinations visited for leisure by U.S. residents, 1999-2004
Figure 19: U.S. citizen air traffic* to overseas regions, canada and mexico, 2001-05
Figure 20: Preliminary U.S. citizen air traffic**, January-May 2006
Canada and Mexico
Canada
Figure 21: U.S. resident overnight trips to Canada from the U.S., by method of transport used, 2000-04
Mexico
Figure 22: U.S. resident overnight trips to Mexico from the U.S., by method of transport used, 2000-04
Market Segmentation
Purpose of trip
Figure 23: Main purpose of trip, all international travelers, 2004
Figure 24: First international trip, all international travelers, 2004
Figure 25: Mean and median number of international trips in past 12 months, all international travelers, 2004
Figure 26: Nights outside the U.S., all international travelers, 2004
Figure 27: Number of countries visited, all international travelers, 2004
Figure 28: Demographic characteristics of outbound travelers, all international travelers, 2004
Supply Structure
Introduction and Overview
Introduction
Figure 29: Method of booking international air trip, 2004
Figure 30: Method of booking international air trip, all international travelers, 1999-2004
Booking international trips online grows dramatically
Figure 31: Total U.S. travel booking sales made via the Internet, at current and constant prices, 2000-05
Figure 32: Top online travel sites*, number of sessions**, January-April 2006
Hotel companies begin limiting supply to third party agencies
Major online/offline agency changes hands
Online and offline agencies
Figure 33: Top ten travel agencies, gross sales volume, 2004-05
Transportation and lodging
Air travel
Figure 34: Number of domestic and international enplanements, 1999-2005
Figure 35: Top ten airlines by scheduled passengers carried, international and domestic, 2005
Leading international airline profiles
Deutsche Lufthansa A.G.
British Airways p.l.c.
Air France-KLM S.A.
American Airlines, Inc.
Singapore Airlines Ltd
Cathay Pacific Airways, Ltd.
Emirates
Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS)
Alitalia-Linee Aeree Italiane S.p.A.
Cruises
Figure 36: Embarkations of north american cruise industry, by region of world, 2003 and 2004
Major cruise company profiles
Carnival Corporation & Carnival p.l.c.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Star Cruises Limited/NCL Corporation Ltd. (Norwegian Cruise Line)
Hotels
Figure 37: International systemwide revenue for top ten global hoteliers, 2003 and 2005
Major hotel company profiles
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG)
Marriott International, Inc.
Accor
Best Western International
Carlson Hospitality
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc.
Cendant/Wyndham
Global Hyatt Corporation
Hilton Hotels Corporation
Choice Hotels International, Inc.
Agency Profiles
American Express
Carlson Wagonlit Travel (Carlson Companies)
Expedia Inc. (formerly IAC/InterActive Corp)
HRG North America
BCD Travel
Travelocity
TQ3 Navigant (Navigant International)
AAA Travel
Travelport
Priceline.com
The Consumer
Introduction
Summary
Lack of maturity
Method of booking
Spouses/significant others win out as travel companions
Spice and variety in destinations?
More money or more vacation time?
Possession of valid passport
Figure 38: Possess valid passport, January-September 2005
Figure 39: Possess valid passport, by household income, January-September 2005
Figure 40: Possess valid passport, by level of educational attainment, January-September 2005
Figure 41: Possess valid passport, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2005
Incidence of foreign travel in last three years
Figure 42: Incidence of foreign travel in last 3 years, January-September 2005
Figure 43: Incidence of foreign travel in last three years, by household income, January-September 2005
Figure 44: Incidence of foreign travel in last three years, by level of education attained, January-September 2005
Figure 45: Incidence of foreign travel in last three years, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2005
Spending on last foreign trip
Figure 46: Spending on last foreign trip, January-September 2005
Figure 47: Spending on last foreign trip, by age, January-September 2005
Figure 48: Spending on last foreign trip, by household income, January-September 2005
Figure 49: Spending on last foreign trip, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2005
Method of booking on last outbound trip
Figure 50: Method of booking last outbound trip, August 2006
Figure 51: Method of booking last outbound trip, by age, August 2006
Figure 52: Method of booking last outbound trip, by household income, August 2006
Figure 53: Method of booking last outbound trip, by race, August 2006
Figure 54: Method of booking last outbound trip, by presence of children in household, August 2006
Figure 55: Method of booking last outbound trip, by region of residence of respondent, August 2006
Travel party/companions on last outbound trip
Figure 56: Travel party/companions on last outbound trip, August 2006
Figure 57: Travel party/companions on last outbound trip, by age, August 2006
Figure 58: Travel party/companions on last outbound trip, by household income, August 2006
Figure 59: Travel party/companions on last outbound trip, by Hispanic origin, August 2006
Reasons/activities for outbound trips
Figure 60: Reasons/activities for outbound trips, August 2006
Figure 61: Reasons/activities for outbound trips, by gender, August 2006
Figure 62: Reasons/activities for outbound trips, by age, August 2006
Figure 63: Reasons/activities for outbound trips, by hispanic origin, August 2006
Intention to travel to new destination on next outbound trip
Figure 64: Intention to travel to new destination on next outbound trip, August 2006
Figure 65: Intention to travel to new destination on next outbound trip, by age, August 2006
Figure 66: Intention to travel to new destination on next outbound trip, by household income, August 2006
Figure 67: Intention to travel to new destination on next outbound trip, by Hispanic origin, August 2006
Figure 68: Intention to travel to new destination on next outbound trip, by region, August 2006
Opinions/intentions regarding outbound travel
Figure 69: Opinions regarding outbound travel, August 2006
Figure 70: Opinions regarding outbound travel, by gender, August 2006
Figure 71: Opinions regarding outbound travel, by age, August 2006
Figure 72: Opinions regarding outbound travel, by household income, August 2006
Figure 73: Opinions regarding outbound travel, by race/ethnicity, August 2006
Figure 74: Opinions regarding outbound travel, by Hispanic origin, August 2006
Figure 75: Opinions regarding outbound travel, by level of educational attainment, August 2006
Future and Forecast
Future trends
Hispanics and Asians will drive outbound travel for VFR
Figure 76: Generations, by race and Hispanic origin, 2005
Electronic passport security concerns worry some
Economy and terrorism have the potential to affect market most
Increasing desire and ability to travel abroad keys to increasing market
Market forecast
Spending on fares and travel-related expenses by U.S. citizens outside the United States
Figure 77: Forecast of total spending on fares and travel-related expenses by U.S. citizens outside the United States, at current and constant prices, 2005-10
Figure 78: Graph: Forecast of total spending on fares and travel-related expenses by U.S. citizens outside the United States, at current and constant prices, 2005-10
Forecast Factors
Appendix: Trade Associations